Every real estate deal, whether you wholesale it, flip it, rent it or take over the seller's loan, comes down to a handful of numbers. Investors who lose money usually did not use the wrong formula; they put the wrong number into it. This guide lists the 13 numbers that decide a deal in 2026, what each one means in plain English, how to calculate it, and a free calculator for each.
01Why deal analysis matters more in 2026
Prices are high, loans are expensive and margins are thin. In investor forums the same complaint shows up again and again: a wholesaler sends a deal to buyers and hears "your numbers are off". Experienced flippers say many deals now only work at 75–85% of the after-repair value minus repairs, not the classic 70%. Lenders check debt coverage on every rental. The only protection is honest math with real inputs.
021. ARV: what the house is worth once fixed
The after-repair value is the price the house should sell for after the work is done, judged from 3–5 recent sales of similar, already-renovated houses nearby. Every flip and wholesale offer starts here, so a high ARV ruins everything after it. Use sold comps from the last 3–6 months within about half a mile, and use the low end when you offer. Try the ARV calculator to average the price per square foot of your comps and see a low-high range.
032. Repair budget: what it really costs to fix
New investors often estimate repairs 20–40% too low. Price the house room by room: kitchen, bathrooms, floors, paint, then the big items (roof, HVAC, electrical, plumbing, windows), then add a 10–15% contingency. The rehab cost estimator has light, medium and heavy presets with 2026 costs.
043. MAO: the most you can offer the seller
Maximum allowable offer = ARV × your buyer's percentage − repairs − your fee. Flippers usually pay 65–70% of ARV minus repairs; landlords can pay 75–80% because they have no selling costs. The wholesale MAO calculator shows the math and a suggested opening offer.
054. Flip profit and return
Profit = sale price − purchase − repairs − loan points and interest − holding costs − buying and selling costs. Divide by the total cost for the return on cost, and by the cash you put in for the return on your cash. Every extra month of holding eats profit. The fix and flip calculator includes the hard-money loan and works backwards to the highest price for your target profit.
065. Monthly cash flow
Cash flow = rent − mortgage − property tax − insurance − HOA − reserves for vacancy, management, repairs and big items. It is the number that tells a landlord whether a rental pays them or they pay it. Use the rental cash flow calculator.
076. Cap rate
Cap rate = net operating income ÷ price. It compares properties as if you paid cash, before the loan. Turn it around to price a deal: value = income ÷ the cap rate you want. Try the cap rate calculator.
087. Cash-on-cash return
Cash-on-cash = yearly cash flow ÷ the cash you put in (down payment, closing costs, upfront repairs). It answers "how hard is my own money working?" and is shown in the rental, BRRRR and subject-to calculators.
098. DSCR: will a lender approve it?
Debt service coverage ratio = rent ÷ PITIA (principal, interest, taxes, insurance, HOA). Most DSCR lenders want 1.20–1.25 for their best terms. DSCR is not cash flow: it ignores repairs and vacancy. The DSCR calculator shows both, plus the largest loan the rent supports.
109. Cash left in the deal after a refinance (BRRRR)
Buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat. Cash left = the cash you put in − the cash the refinance gives back. Zero or less is a "perfect BRRRR". The BRRRR calculator models the short-term loan, the refinance at your lender's LTV and the cash flow afterwards.
1110. Entry fee and spread (subject-to)
When you take over a seller's existing loan, the price matters less than the entry fee (missed payments + cash to the seller + closing costs + repairs) and the monthly spread (rent − the loan payment and costs). The subject-to calculator lays them out the way creative investors post deals.
1211. Payment and balloon (seller financing)
With seller financing the seller acts as the bank. You need the monthly payment, the balance still owed when the balloon comes due and how much of each year goes to interest. The seller financing calculator prints a full payment schedule.
1312. Seller's net: cash offer vs listing
Sellers think in "what do I walk away with". A seller net sheet compares your cash offer with listing on the market after commissions, closing costs, repairs and months of holding costs. Often the gap is much smaller than the seller expects. Try the seller net sheet calculator.
1413. Short-term rental profit and break-even occupancy
For an Airbnb: revenue = nightly rate × nights booked + cleaning fees, minus platform fees, cleaning, management, utilities, supplies, taxes, insurance and the mortgage. The break-even occupancy tells you how full the calendar must be just to cover costs. Use the short-term rental calculator.
15Put it on one page for your buyers
When the numbers work, show them clearly. The wholesale deal sheet turns your price, ARV and repairs into a one-page flyer for cash buyers, with the buyer's profit worked out.
16The inputs matter more than the formulas
- Use sold comps, not automated estimates.
- Have a contractor walk the house before you commit.
- Use real rents from similar listings and real loan quotes.
- Stress-test: does the deal still work if repairs run 20% higher or rates rise 1%?
All 19 calculators are free with no sign-up, and each one shows every step of the math with your own numbers. When you are ready to find the properties to run through them, LeadCounty finds motivated sellers in county records every week.
