01How it is defined in LeadCounty
Model score 9-10: the 20% of the county most likely to sell in the next 12 months, tested on last year's real sales.
02How many are on the list today
Likely to sell (top 20%) is on file in 84 of 99 counties this week. The most are in Wayne County (Detroit), MI (42,545), Harris County (Houston), TX (37,502), Philadelphia County, PA (35,525); the typical county has 2,495.
| County | On the list |
|---|---|
| Wayne County (Detroit), MI | 42,545 |
| Harris County (Houston), TX | 37,502 |
| Philadelphia County, PA | 35,525 |
| Collin County (Plano), TX | 35,003 |
| Franklin County, OH | 32,439 |
| Cook County (Chicago), IL | 31,322 |
| Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), NC | 27,241 |
| Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH | 22,789 |
| Denton County, TX | 22,075 |
| Milwaukee County, WI | 19,227 |
| Wake County (Raleigh), NC | 18,195 |
| Hillsborough County (Tampa), FL | 11,914 |
03Why it matters
Most owners on any single list never sell. A score that weighs dozens of signals together, and is checked against real sales, tells you where to spend your mail and your time first.
04Where it shows up in public records
Built from the county's own records (ownership history, tax status, deed types, absentee mailing addresses, code cases and more) and trained on the sales that really happened in that county.
05How to find likely to sell (top 20%) in 3 steps
- Step 1, find the record: built from the county's own records (ownership history, tax status, deed types, absentee mailing addresses, code cases and more) and trained on the sales that really happened in that county.
- Step 2, match it to the property: join the record to the parcel by its parcel number and the owner's name and address, so you know which house it belongs to.
- Step 3, add a second reason: stack likely to sell (top 20%) with another list to see which owners have more than one reason to sell. LeadCounty does steps 1 and 2 for every property each week.
06How we count it
LeadCounty counts likely to sell (top 20%) from each county's own records and shows the number for every county in the table above, refreshed weekly. A county that does not publish the record shows no count rather than a guess.
07How to use it
- Mail or call the top 10% every month instead of the whole county.
- Read the reasons shown next to the score: they tell you what to say.
- Stack it with one hard signal, such as tax delinquent or inherited, for the strongest list.
08Best stacks with likely to sell (top 20%)
One list gives you a reason; two or three lists together give you owners with several reasons at once. The stacks that work best with likely to sell (top 20%):
- Likely to sell (top 20%) + tax delinquent: tax is past due, a dated and money-based sign of pressure.
- Likely to sell (top 20%) + inheritance deed: the house came through an inheritance deed, often to heirs who did not plan to own it.
