Most listings are won before the homeowner ever talks to an agent. The owner has already started thinking about a move, and the agent who reaches them first, with something useful to say, usually gets the call. Public records show many of those moments early.
01Signals that a homeowner may list soon
- Long ownership: owners who bought 10 to 20 years ago have equity and are often at a life change (kids leaving, retirement).
- High equity: when the county value is far above the last sale price, the owner can sell comfortably.
- An inherited house: heirs usually sell within a year or two, and often live elsewhere.
- Absentee and out-of-state owners: landlords and second-home owners decide to sell more often than owner-occupants.
- Tax trouble: a missed tax bill can be the first sign that the house has become a burden.
- A likely-to-sell score: a model that weighs all of these together, tested on last year's real sales.
02A simple monthly routine
- Pick your farm (a few zip codes or neighborhoods) and sort it by likely-to-sell score.
- Mail the top 10% every month with something useful: a home-value update, nearby sales, a moving checklist.
- Watch the Monday e-mail for new changes in your farm: a new inheritance deed or a first missed tax bill is a reason to reach out now.
- Track who answered in your board and follow up on a schedule.
03Why public records beat bought lists
Bought lists are the same for every agent in town and are often months old. County records change every week, and a cap on how many investors and agents use each county keeps your farm from being flooded with the same mail.
